SWODY1
SPC AC 031241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU DEC 03 2009
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECTING QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE CONUS BY TONIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...ALTHOUGH FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SWLY DEEP LAYER
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL.
...NORTHEAST...
NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED MOIST CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO
RACE ENEWD TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. INTENSE WIND FIELDS
CHARACTERIZED BY 70-80 KT H85 JET MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUST ACROSS THIS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY FORCED...BUT
NARROW LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CG-LIGHTNING.
...S FL...
A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST
OVER S FL WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MOIST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INVOF FRONT...BUT TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE DEEPER
CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE DECREASING AS THE PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS AND WEAKENS. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS AFTERNOON HEATING STEEPENS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED.
..EVANS.. 12/03/2009
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