SWODY2
SPC AC 020559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST NEWD INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE ROCKIES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A POTENT UPPER WAVE... CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER TX AS A CLOSED LOW...TO BE EJECTED RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND ON THU. AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCOMPANY UPPER TROUGH...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD OFF
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY 03/12Z. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND/NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL DUE TO
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
...FL PENINSULA...
WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. CONVECTION MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN FL THU
NIGHT AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET.
...LONG ISLAND/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND BUOYANCY
BETWEEN 850-300 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
SOME LIGHTNING THU MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER WAVE SPEEDS
NEWD...THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY 18Z.
..IMY.. 12/02/2009
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