SWODY2
SPC AC 131730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. MULTIPLE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SPREADS
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO TX.
...SOUTHEAST TX TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AND FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE MIDWEST. AS SUCH...RETURN OF MARINE
FRONT/APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED INLAND ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG...WITH A TENDENCY FOR
UPDRAFTS /ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST/ TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE FACTORS...INCLUDING MODEST DEEP
LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY LOW SUCH
THAT NOTHING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 12/13/2009
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