SWODY2
SPC AC 290605
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2009
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL TIED TO A
CYCLONICALLY EMBEDDED/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM
EASTERN NM AND TX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
...GULF COAST STATES...
AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...RELATIVELY MODEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT VIA THE AFOREMENTIONED PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE TX UPPER COAST AND
SOUTHERN LA. WITH THE MARINE FRONT LIKELY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED INLAND
GIVEN MEAGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY /MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG OR
LESS/ ATOP A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD VIA MINORING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INLAND ADVANCING FRONTAL
BAND...BUT 10% TSTM PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.
..GUYER.. 12/29/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment