SWODY2
SPC AC 061727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 06 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/BLOCK OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/AK VICINITY. PRIMARY FEATURES AS RELATED TO DEEP
CONVECTIVE/TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER CA/SOUTHWEST STATES TO
THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY...COINCIDENT WITH THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF
A BAROCLINIC ZONE/MARITIME AIRMASS TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT.
...UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA MONDAY NIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO LATTER PERIOD/INITIAL INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES UPPER TROUGH AND ONSET OF SOUTHERN PLAINS HEIGHT FALLS...GULF
MARINE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TOWARD THE UPPER TX
COAST/SOUTHERN LA COAST MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
ELEVATED TSTMS OTHERWISE BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMMON MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME....IT APPEARS THE PROSPECTS FOR A SURFACE BASED SEVERE
THREAT TO DEVELOP INLAND IN TANDEM WITH THE MARINE FRONT ARE
RELATIVELY LOW/UNCERTAIN PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY...SUCH THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE
UPPER TX/SOUTHERN LA GULF COAST.
..GUYER.. 12/06/2009
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