SWODY3
SPC AC 030748
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST THU DEC 03 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM
THE MS/AL AREA NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN RESPONSE TO
EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN FL...THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
...FL PENINSULA...
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF FL...CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRUSHING AREA SHOULD SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...MAINLY
BETWEEN 12Z-20Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT AND MLCAPES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. ALSO...STRONGLY VEERED WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...ALONG
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWER 100 MB YIELDS 1KM
SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS CO-LOCATED
OR LOCATED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.
..IMY.. 12/03/2009
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