SWODY3
SPC AC 100757
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT AIR STREAM
THROUGH THE DAY THREE PERIOD...EXTENDING GENERALLY FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN CA COAST ESEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND THEN MORE ENEWD
TO OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CURRENT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM...THE MOST
NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC INTO GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD FROM THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...IN ADVANCE OF
DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOWER
LATITUDES...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE RE-DEVELOPING OFF THE GA
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE NWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST AND FL...
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO WEAKENING MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVING INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE NWD DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FL PENINSULA. ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST WITHIN ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITHIN MOIST/WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE SRN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARABLY WEAKER MID AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. MOREOVER...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE WEAK WITH THESE FACTORS LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS.
..MEAD.. 12/10/2009
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