SWODY3
SPC AC 110725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THIS
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING CA WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG A
BOUNDARY NEAR COASTAL NC. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH A
BROAD TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN STATES. WEAK
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREAS AND FL.
...CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT RAPIDLY OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. ONGOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT ABOVE STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL REINFORCE WEDGE OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIMITED TO COASTAL SC/NC WHERE A SMALL WARM SECTOR COULD BRIEFLY
SPREAD INLAND. THE LOW AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER
TROUGH SUGGEST THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO WEAK AND TOO
FAR EAST FOR SIGNIFICANT INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY.
THEREFORE...ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS APPEARS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 12/11/2009
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