SWODY3
SPC AC 290812
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A CENTRAL STATES BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH...00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE IMPLY THAT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY MINOR/WEAKEN OVER THE OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A SUBSEQUENT AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE LAST DAY
OF THE YEAR WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO AN INITIALLY MODEST NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROGUE TSTMS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST/OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN THE LATTER PERIOD APPROACH OF AN
APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT.
...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WHILE A GRADUAL INFLUX
OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...WEAKLY FORCED
CYCLONIC UPPER REGIME...CLOUD COVER...AND LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY
IMPLY A LIMITED CONVECTIVE VIGOR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE
APPROACH/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE
ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE MARGINAL PREFRONTAL MOISTURE/NOCTURNALLY HINDERED
BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONSIDERABLY
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS FL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LATTER PERIOD
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT AN APPRECIABLY MOIST/WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. AS
SUCH...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 12/29/2009
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