SWOD48
SPC AC 020914
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR SEVERE...LET ALONE CONVECTION...APPEARS QUITE
LOW...ESPECIALLY SAT-MON...AS LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
EVOLVES TOWARD A FLATTER CYCLONIC/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME. WHILE
WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEMS
WILL RESULT IN WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND LITTLE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN.
ON TUE/WED...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...MODEL VARIANCE REGARDING THE SPEED AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TOO GREAT TO CONSIDER A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
..IMY.. 12/02/2009
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