SWOD48
SPC AC 040958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2009
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
04/00Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ACCELERATING
THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. BOTH ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES CLOSE TO
VERIFYING...UNDOUBTEDLY POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL
EXIST ANYWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE MOST LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE. AND THIS INCONSISTENCY...COUPLED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT SUBSTANTIVE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...RESULT IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE
A SEVERE THREAT AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 12/04/2009
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