SWOD48
SPC AC 071000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST MON DEC 07 2009
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
07/00Z MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION
OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FROM THAT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE TO
QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE CONUS BY D6 /SAT DEC 12TH/. THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A DRY
STABLE AIR MASS E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP AMONGST
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS AND A LARGE NUMBER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A QUASI-ZONAL REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. GIVEN THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...NO AREAS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 12/07/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment