SWOD48
SPC AC 140851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION BY DAY 5 AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GFS
AND ECMWF REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION AND MREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BEYOND DAY 5. IN EITHER
CASE...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD AS THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH USHERS IN ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF CP OR
ARCTIC AIR.
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A MODEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS FL DAY 5 WHERE IT INDICATES A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE
ERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY FOR THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 12/14/2009
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