SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041351
NYZ000-041645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 041351Z - 041645Z
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INVOF THE BUFFALO METRO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE CNTRL GRT LAKES WILL MOVE
LITTLE TODAY AS IT ELONGATES/WEAKENS WITH TIME...THEREBY MAINTAINING
A SWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LACK OF A SIZABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING
WILL PROBABLY ACT TO LIMIT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES TO BE ONLY IN
THE 1-2 INCH/HOUR RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A RELAXING IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS 18Z...LIKELY SIGNALING A WEAKENING IN
SNOWFALL INTENSITY RATES. NONETHELESS...A SUFFICIENTLY LONG LOW
LEVEL SWLY FETCH ACROSS NERN PARTS OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD CONTINUE AND
SUPPORT A SINGLE INTENSE/NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
IMPACT MAINLY PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN ERIE COUNTY INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.
..SMITH.. 12/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...BUF...
LAT...LON 42587989 43167855 43157839 42997838 42877849 42537955
42537974 42587989
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