SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090719
NCZ000-VAZ000-090915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST WED DEC 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 090719Z - 090915Z
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES MAY BE CONFINED TO A
LIMITED COASTAL AREA...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE SURGING INLAND ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG A SHARP
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA REGION... THROUGH THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. COUPLED
WITH VEERING OF DEEPER LAYER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...AS
A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...IT APPEARS THAT A PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO FORM EAST OF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BETTER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS
BECOMING A FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE NATURE
OF THE FORCING AND THE CHARACTER OF THE WIND PROFILES LIKELY
MAINTAINING DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. GIVEN
VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS... TORNADOES WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS VICINITY AND NEARBY EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN.
..KERR.. 12/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33967862 34787832 36017717 36657647 36447574 35717528
34867568 33857693 33597755 33827841 33967862
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