SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150922
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150922Z - 151045Z
ISOLATED...MORE PERSISTENT...STORMS TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS E TX...LA
AND PARTS OF SRN MS EARLY THIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL...WHILE STORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST
MAY POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND LIKELY OF MORE CONCERN...THE
CONTINUED TRAINING OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM COASTAL AND SERN
LA EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO /S OF BUOY 42039/ WWD TO 30-40 MILES S OF THE LA
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SWD
THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN TX...NRN LA AND CENTRAL MS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REACH SERN MS...SRN LA AND THE UPPER/MIDDLE TX COAST BY
12Z. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NWRN TO NERN GULF COAST
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD ZONE OF WEAK
LOW LEVEL WAA LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME WITHIN COUPLED
UPPER JETS ACROSS THE NWRN GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TWO CORRIDORS OF TSTMS 1/ ALONG THE NWRN
GULF COAST AND 2/ FURTHER INLAND OVER E TX TO NRN/CENTRAL LA...A
SINGLE CORRIDOR OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY 12Z AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS THE NRN ACTIVITY AND FOCUSES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NWRN
GULF COAST/MS DELTA FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS AGREE WITH THE ONGOING SCENARIO OF TRAINING STORMS FROM THE
NWRN GULF COAST TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS CORRIDOR COINCIDES WITH A PLUME
OF PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.7 INCHES SUPPORTING THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES.
DEEP WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR LEFT-
SPLITTING STORMS ACROSS E TX/LA...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL
WITHIN THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY...GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
C/KM.
..PETERS.. 12/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29389196 29479302 29609368 29739470 30089539 31029533
31509496 31739359 31729187 31609078 31579015 31458920
31478832 31638775 31328686 30398680 29928782 29568893
29208934 29149049 29389196
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