SWODY1
SPC AC 011432
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0832 AM CST FRI JAN 01 2010
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE /NOW OFF THE
W-CENTRAL FL COAST/ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS FL
THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
SSEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION BETWEEN H85-H7 /ESPECIALLY OVER SRN FL/
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST DEEP ASCENT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ERODE THIS
INVERSION...SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF TSTMS PERSISTING OVER THE ERN GOM IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE EWD AND MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST AS STORMS INGEST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL...GIVEN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/I.E. 35-45 KT FROM SFC-6KM/. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY
THREATS OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO WITH
ANY SFC-BASED TSTM TODAY.
..EVANS.. 01/01/2010
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