Wednesday, January 27, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271941
SWODY1
SPC AC 271939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST WED JAN 27 2010

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN AZ...SRN NM THROUGH WRN TX...

THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER SERN AZ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
THROUGH SRN NM THIS EVENING WITH COVERAGE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT
OVER WRN TX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
NECESSARY.

..DIAL/STOPPKOTTE.. 01/27/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010/

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX/EASTERN NM AND HELP TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NM AND MUCH OF WEST/CENTRAL TX. SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CORES...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

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