SWODY1
SPC AC 270532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
COLD/DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TODAY...AS SPLIT UPPER WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH AMERICA. PREVALENCE OF COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL LARGELY LIMIT TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
CROSSING FAR NORTHERN MEXICO.
...SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM/WEST TX...
GIVEN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE OF THE DIGGING/ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST AZ/FAR
SOUTHWEST NM. LATER TONIGHT...TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD EXPAND/PROBABLY
INCREASE INTO SOUTHWEST TX/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST NM...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES.
SOME MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...BUT SCENARIO APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT HAIL PROBABILITIES...LARGELY OWING TO MODEST
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE PER 00Z
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
..GUYER.. 01/27/2010
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