SWODY2
SPC AC 110534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS
CONCERNING THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
PACIFIC COAST...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE
WITHIN THIS BELT OF WESTERLIES. ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...TOWARD THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...EARLY TUESDAY...AS A STRONGER
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.
THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY NOT ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...GUIDANCE REMAINS SUGGESTIVE
THAT IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FRACTURED... WITH A PORTION LIFTING
INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF DOWNSTREAM SPLIT UPPER FLOW...ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON...AND ANOTHER PORTION BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...ACROSS NORTHERN/ CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
FARTHER EAST...BROADER SCALE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED...WHILE A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SLOWLY
DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF
COAST REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE TWO STREAMS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES PROBABLY WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT EASTWARD...BUT A COOL EAST NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GENERALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINING NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION.
...PACIFIC COAST...
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT
PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST LOW
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAKENING FRONT ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE... COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE
NEXT IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AND FARTHER UP COASTAL
AREAS...BRIEF/OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE IN MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
..KERR.. 01/11/2010
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