SWODY2
SPC AC 271722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN THROUGH S
CNTRL AND SERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY. A BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA ADVANCES ENE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES WWD
THROUGH NRN AND WRN TX. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX OVERNIGHT.
...SW THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX...
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS STILL UNDERGOING MODIFICATION
WITH NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN HEIGHT FALL ZONE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD
ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW TO MID 60F
DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS S AND S-CNTRL TX AND MID TO UPPER 50F
FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA. A RESERVOIR OF 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE
THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL
INVERSION ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z RAOBS FROM WRN THROUGH S TX
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR
WILL PROBABLY STAY CAPPED UNTIL ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING ATTENDING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEWD ADVANCING FRONT INTERCEPT THE MOIST AXIS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN END OF THE MCS WILL BE BASED NEAR
THE SURFACE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..DIAL.. 01/27/2010
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