SWODY3
SPC AC 280729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS PUTTING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO CNTRL FL. BOTH MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS FL DUE TO A MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT TAKES PLACE ACROSS
CNTRL FL SATURDAY. THE ETA-KF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH
MUCAPE VALUES IN CNTRL FL FROM 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. IF THIS VERIFIES
ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F...THEN AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS ALONG
THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED A SEE TEXT FOR PARTS OF CNTRL FL FOR A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEPENDENT UPON DESTABILIZATION.
..BROYLES.. 01/28/2010
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