DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270945
SWOD48
SPC AC 270945

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES ON SATURDAY/DAY
4. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS AND SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM THE MS DELTA
REGION TO THE FL PANHANDLE...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK
SUGGESTING THE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL
AND SRN FL. AGAIN...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MONDAY/DAY 6 WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH IS REASONABLE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY/DAY 7. MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD BE WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.

..BROYLES.. 01/27/2010

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