SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170522
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-170645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NE FL...SE GA AND SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170522Z - 170645Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE FL...SE GA AND SRN SC
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ALTHOUGH A WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.
A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NRN FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
NWD INTO ECNTRL GA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LINE OF
CONVECTION IS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE AXIS OF A
STRENGTHENING 55 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND A FEW BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP AS THE LINE BECOMES MORE DEFINED AFTER 06Z. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSONVILLE ARE SAMPLING
THE JET SHOWING 50 KT OF FLOW BELOW 1 KM. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS IN THE LINE BUT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. IN ADDITION...A STABLE LAYER
EXISTS NEAR THE SFC. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 01/17/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28698162 28578213 29248252 31198248 32328155 33248034
32887975 31288130 29838139 29108138 28698162
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