Sunday, January 17, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0007

ACUS11 KWNS 170834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170833
NCZ000-SCZ000-170900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170833Z - 170900Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH 10-12Z...ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE
SC COAST TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE NC COASTAL AREA /BRUNSWICK...
PENDER AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES/. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL WATCH GIVEN THE AVAILABLE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-60 KT PER CHS WSR-88D VWP/ AND
STRONG FORCING ATTENDANT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING TOWARD SC SUGGEST A NARROW FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THIS LINE
OF CONVECTION /WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/ EXTENDING FROM DORCHESTER TO
BEAUFORT COUNTIES AND THEN SWD OFFSHORE OF GA/NERN FL. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32187993 32768023 33278047 33747946 34197870 34347810
34177753 33927730 33377768 32697893 32187993

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