SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181816
CAZ000-181915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST MON JAN 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CA COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181816Z - 181915Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INLAND BY 1830Z. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
RECENT TRENDS IN SAN FRANCISCO RADAR DATA INDICATE
DEEPENING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG A SHORT BAND APPROACHING
MONTEREY BAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD TOWARD SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AS OF 18Z. PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND WEAKER PRECIPITATION HAVE
PRECEDED THIS DEVELOPING BAND THROUGH THE MORNING...EFFECTIVELY
LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG...AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /REF.
CURRENT SAN FRANCISCO VWP/...IT APPEARS THAT THE VERY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. STILL...SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS APPROACHING
THE SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY AREAS BETWEEN 1830-1900Z.
..MEAD.. 01/18/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MTR...
LAT...LON 36992241 37462254 37852249 37862206 37162152 36642137
36312155 36222172 36372202 36992241
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