MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0044

ACUS11 KWNS 211951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211951
CAZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211951Z - 212045Z

AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES ONSHORE AND AFFECTS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL VICINITY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY
SHIFT SWD IN A FEW HOURS AND BE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN CA COASTAL
AREAS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING 979 MB SURFACE LOW 50 MI SW
MRY MOVING NEWD AS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTS EWD W OF THE
LA BASIN OVER THE E PACIFIC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT /DCVA/ ATTENDANT TO
THIS FEATURE IS OVERSPREADING A MODEST LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
PROTRUDING NWD FROM NRN BAJA TO PT CONCEPTION. THIS APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO THE CONVECTION MOVING NEWD
FROM THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS ACCORDING TO RECENT RADAR MOSAIC
IMAGERY.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AFTER THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY WITH THE REMAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY
FOCUSING FROM POINT CONCEPTION SWD. IT IS HERE /LA BASIN--MEXICAN
BORDER/ WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY DEEP MOIST PROFILES IN A
MARGINAL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITHIN A STRONG STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY INVOF THE COASTAL AREAS. RECENT KVTX
IMAGERY SHOWS ATTEMPTS AT SHALLOW CELLULAR CONVECTION SE OF SANTA
CRUZ ISLAND AS OF 1945Z. WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT MOVING INTO THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST OR
TWO.

..SMITH.. 01/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON 33961943 34201975 34572020 35162031 35182020 35002001
34661961 34371870 34001796 33431720 32861686 32591695
32531716 33241758 33691809 33961943

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