MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0054

ACUS11 KWNS 232136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232135
OKZ000-TXZ000-232230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX AND EXTREME SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232135Z - 232230Z

TSTM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR SRN OK THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE HAIL. A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACE A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM ERN OK-NERN TX
SWWD INTO S-CNTRL TX WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LOCATED FURTHER W IN A N-S ORIENTATION FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO
THE BIG BEND. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP FROM CNTRL TX NEWD TO ERN OK AND THIS IS SERVING TO
DELAY/INHIBIT APPRECIABLE SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A TSTM CLUSTER 60 MI S CDS.
JTN/DYS PROFILER DATA INDICATE STRONG SWLY FLOW BUT FURTHER N ACROSS
SWRN OK...FDR VAD DATA SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SURFACE TO 4 KM
FLOW. AS A RESULT...STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS CONFINED
TO MAINLY PARTS OF NW TX WHERE SHEAR IS LIKELY STRONGER. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ACTING TO AID IN
DESTABILIZING AN INITIALLY UNSUPPORTIVE PROFILE FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN SUMMARY...DESPITE WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS DUE TO STRENGTH OF
FORCING/SHEAR FOR STORMS TO POSSIBLY ORGANIZE AND POSE AN ISOLD DMGG
WIND/HAIL THREAT.

..SMITH.. 01/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34009921 34179881 34219779 34149733 33659726 33339760
33199804 33139903 33439943 33609944 34009921

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