SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280622
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-281215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SW OK...
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 280622Z - 281215Z
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NM INTO WRN
OK THURSDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL THREAT OF FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO A
SLEET/SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WHILE
PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NERN NM.
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SONORA MX AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. USING 21Z
SREF/RUC/4KM WRF NMM COMPOSITE...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM I-40 IN ERN NM ENEWD TO
NRN OK AT 09Z...AND FROM THE WRN S PLAINS ENEWD TO NEAR THE OKC
METRO AT 15Z. A WARM NOSE ALOFT AOA 0 DEG C /IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER/ WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE AS ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT...MAINLY
IN THE NRN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE...BY 12Z AS PERSISTENT ADIABATIC
COOLING OCCURS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. EXPANDING BAND OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING S /MAINLY AFFECTING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 12Z/...WHILE A NARROW SW TO NE CORRIDOR OF SLEET IS EXPECTED
IN THE NRN S PLAINS AND THE SRN/ERN PANHANDLE...AND SNOW IN THE
NRN/WRN PANHANDLE. CONTINUED COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS ERN NM OF 1 INCH PER
HOUR AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED. FZRA PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SW OK WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN .05 TO .10 INCH PER
HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
..ROGERS/SMITH.. 01/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35980569 36470400 36560209 36279901 35509793 35009829
34639934 34090118 33550317 33350475 33540574 33970621
34920628 35980569
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment