MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0075

ACUS11 KWNS 281948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281947
TXZ000-282145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281947Z - 282145Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW...WHICH COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
21-23Z.

WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE JUST BEGINNING TO PIVOT AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU CLOSED
LOW...MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF ONE SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT... COUPLED WITH
DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW... APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING PROGRESSES BENEATH A COLD
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -20C. MIXED
LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD SERVE TO FOCUS INTENSIFYING STORMS WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD ACROSS THE RIVER INTO TEXAS ...AIDED BY 50-70 KT
WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE
HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR.. 01/28/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 28100021 28150174 28940237 29560189 30640091 31099963
29289917 28100021

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