SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282043
TXZ000-282215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL...NE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 282043Z - 282215Z
A SHORT-TERM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AREA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS EAST OF THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTING ONGOING
VIGOROUS STORM CLUSTER WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z... WEAKENING
AS IT DOES. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE APPEARS FOCUSED JUST
SOUTH OF STALLED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...WHERE MID 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS COULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO VERY WEAK SURFACE OR NEAR
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH
ACROSS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 21-22Z...WITH
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM NEAR A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD
FASTER THAN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN.
SO...IT SEEMS THAT ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM
RELATIVE INFLOW EMANATES FROM INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR EAST OF DALLAS
AFTER 22Z.
..KERR.. 01/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33119765 33539673 33589593 33329515 32629481 32099518
31619631 31379711 31329802 32249754 33119765
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