DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191220
SWODY1
SPC AC 191219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE...LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE LWR
48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK ALONG THE CANADIAN
W CST. S OF THE BLOCK...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR
34N/130W SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW LATER TODAY... BEFORE
CONTINUING ESE TO JUST OFF THE SRN CA CST /NEAR LOS ANGELES/ EARLY
SAT.

AT LWR LVLS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CST NEAR MRY EARLY SAT. THE LOW WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN/SHOWER BAND OVER CNTRL/SRN CA
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SECONDARY...LWR-TOPPED BAND OF
CONVECTION/ASCENT LIKELY WILL IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE MAIN UPR VORT
ALONG THE SRN CA CST EARLY SAT.

...SRN CA CST EARLY SAT...
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW TO .75 INCHES/ AND ASCENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE SRN CA CST EARLY SAT AS MAIN VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROUGH APPROACHES REGION AFTER 06Z. THIS
MAY SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF WHAT LIKELY WILL BE AN EXISTING BAND OF
CONVECTION/EMBEDDED STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT AS THE VORT NEARS
THE SRN CA CST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CSTL CA TODAY AS A LEE SFC LOW
FORMS OVER NV. ASSOCIATED LOW LVL MOISTENING MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAX/SAN AREAS EARLY
SAT. OVERALL...HOWEVER...SRN TRACK OF UPR SYSTEM WILL KEEP
STRONGEST WIND FIELD S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...I.E...OVER BAJA
CA. COUPLED WITH UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MODEST MOISTURE
SUPPLY...PROSPECTS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WATERSPOUT OR ISOLD TORNADO
THREAT APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR
PROBABILITIES.

..CORFIDI.. 02/19/2010

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