SWODY1
SPC AC 271248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2010
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN CA TODAY INTO SW AZ TONIGHT...
ANOTHER STRONG SRN STREAM TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL/SRN CA. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITHIN THE BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE FRONT AND MIDLEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SW AZ WHERE WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET. AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE SRN CA COAST GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES ON LOW-LEVEL FLOW /BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PRIMARILY IN THE LA BASIN/. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES GIVEN COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /NEAR -25
C AT 500 MB/ AND MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL THREAT OF HAIL AOA 1 INCH DIAMETER AND A TORNADO APPEARS TOO
SMALL TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF ANY SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES.
...S FL THIS AFTERNOON...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
ESEWD OVER FL BY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS OVER FL IS COOL AND DRY IN THE
WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION WHICH IS NOW WELL S OF CUBA. THERE
WILL BE RELATIVELY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND AIR MASS
MODIFICATION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY EXTREME S FL AND THE KEYS POTENTIALLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
..THOMPSON.. 02/27/2010
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