SWODY1
SPC AC 041601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST THU FEB 04 2010
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TROUGH COMPLEX NOW CROSSING THE
RCKYS WILL CONTINUE E TO THE LWR MS VLY/NWRN GULF THIS PERIOD AS
BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH EDGES E ACROSS THE E PACIFIC. AT LWR
LVLS...WEAK SFC LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE NWRN GULF EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES ENE TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF CST EARLY FRI.
AT THE SAME TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE ALONG AND JUST OFF THE E CST.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST...
ELEVATED WAA WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF AND CNTRL GULF CST
TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE REGION.
APPROACH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER WIND MAX WILL ENHANCE DEEP UVV OVER THE N
CNTRL GULF AS PW/S INCREASE TO AOA 1.75 INCHES. BUT POSITIVE
TILT OF TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK.
COUPLED WITH EXISTING LOW LVL CP AIR OVER REGION...PROSPECTS FOR
OVERLAND SFC-BASED TSTMS LOOK LOW. WDLY SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WILL
SPREAD EWD FROM CENTRAL TO ERN GULF COAST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
..HALES.. 02/04/2010
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