SWODY1
SPC AC 071630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2010
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN AZ WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER
AZ/NM TODAY AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LOSE AMPLITUDE GRADUALLY WHILE ENCOUNTERING A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS A RESULT OF A NRN STREAM VORTEX
DIGGING SWD OVER THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ INTO
NM...WHERE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET
COINCIDES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL/N TX...LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ. THE NWD RETURN OF A MODIFYING
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL TX...AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG.
THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AFTER 06Z.
..THOMPSON.. 02/07/2010
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