SWODY1
SPC AC 231239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2010
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPR LOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS/SRN
RCKYS SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY ESE THIS PERIOD...WITH SYSTEM LIKELY
TO DEAMPLIFY IN CONFLUENT FLOW EVOLVING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
FARTHER SE...SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN FAST SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO EWD
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL.
AT THE SFC...MODIFIED POLAR OR ARCTIC AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA...WHERE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S SQLN HAS STALLED
AND WEAKENED. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REDEVELOP S INTO S FL LATER
TODAY...IN WAKE OF WEAK UPR IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING THE ERN GULF.
IT SHOULD THEN REMAIN STNRY OVER S FL THROUGH WED MORNING.
...S FL...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE
TOWERS/ISOLD STORMS OVER INTERIOR AND ERN PARTS OF S FL TODAY AS SFC
HEATING DESTABILIZES RESIDUAL LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS. DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
DEEP CONVECTION/ISOLD THUNDER MAY REAPPEAR OVER S FL...OR...MORE
LIKELY...OVER THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS...TOWARD 12Z WED AS WAA
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE SRN PLNS.
...CNTRL TX...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER CNTRL/S CNTRL TX
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN REGION OF STRONG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SE NM UPR
VORT. BUT SHALLOW DEPTH OF ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER...AND LIMITED
DEGREE OF CAPE IN THAT LAYER...SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLD.
..CORFIDI.. 02/23/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment