SWODY1
SPC AC 261253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2010
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY WITH A
DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND...A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM TX/OK TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE ERN PAC TO CA BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THE TX TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY THE NWD RETURN OF A
MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
SE TX...BENEATH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SE TX BY ABOUT MIDDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PATH OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING
SEWD FROM N CENTRAL TX TO THE NW GULF COAST. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-24 C AT 500 MB/...BUT THE THREAT FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR GREATER
HAIL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF A 5% SEVERE
HAIL PROBABILITY AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SWATH OF CUMULUS CONVECTION WITH THE
MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH NEAR 130 W...AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAVE
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN CA COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
..THOMPSON.. 02/26/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment