SWODY1
SPC AC 050037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST THU FEB 04 2010
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL OR PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...JUST EAST OF A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS BAND APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...MAINLY NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL WATERS. WHILE A PORTION OF THIS LINE COULD IMPACT
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...A LINGERING
COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER INLAND OF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO
NEGATE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR TORNADOES...DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...WHERE
SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF REGION. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE EASTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT ...AN
INCREASINGLY EXTENSIVE AND ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE COULD EVOLVE.
..KERR.. 02/05/2010
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