SWODY2
SPC AC 010532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY WILL TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
LOWER-AMPLITUDE COUNTERPART...NOW CROSSING NRN MEXICO...WILL MOVE
ENE IN TANDEM...TRAVERSING THE SRN STATES/GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
DAY 2 PERIOD. A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL ACCELERATE/DEVELOP ENE OFF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A CDFNT WILL FOLLOW...SETTLING SEWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TO THE W...COMPLEX UPR LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF OREGON WILL
SETTLE SEWD TO A POSITION OFF OF THE PAC NW COAST ON TUESDAY. A JET
STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENE
THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE DESERT SW AND SRN ROCKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
...FL...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPS ENE OFFSHORE THE SERN ATLC
COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN WNWLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA
DURING TUESDAY AFTN. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...MEAGER INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTN. NO SVR WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...SWRN STATES...
LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO A SLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPR-LVL TROUGH. THIS WILL TRANSPORT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 0.50-0.75 INCHES INTO PARTS OF NWRN MEXICO AND ADJACENT
BORDER STATES FROM CA TO NM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH AS THE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS OCCURS IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TSTMS...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA. THE PRIMARY TSTM THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER AMIDST STRONGER THERMAL BUOYANCY.
..RACY.. 02/01/2010
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