SWODY2
SPC AC 011723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST MON FEB 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FROM S-CENTRAL CONUS WWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND AS FAR BACK AS HIMALAYAS REGION. TROUGH NOW
OVER S TX AND NERN MEX IS FCST TO EJECT ENEWD INTO BELT OF CONFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS SERN CONUS...REACHING GA AND FL PANHANDLE BY START OF
PERIOD. TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE GA/SC BY ABOUT 2/21Z...AS
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS APCHS
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS.
QUASISTATIONARY LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF IS
ANALYZED WITH TWO BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS AT 850-925 MB...BUT AT
SFC...ONE ACROSS GULF AND TWO OVER ATLANTIC E OF FL. FRONTAL-WAVE
LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER W-CENTRAL/NW GULF -- AHEAD OF MEX SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DAY-1. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SUCH LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE DAY-1 AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN FL...FCST TO
BEGIN DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY OVER ATLANTIC SE OF CHS BY 2/18Z. LOW
THEN SHOULD MOVE FARTHER ENEWD AND OFFSHORE. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA BY 3/03Z.
...COASTAL GA/SC...FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD INVOF COASTAL GA/SC. OUTLOOK AREA REPRESENTS FRINGE OF
THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG NWRN SIDE OF STG LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR...N
OF SFC LOW AND NW OF CONSOLIDATING SFC WARM FRONTS...WHERE PARCELS
ARE ISOTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE
250-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...ELEVATED ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SUPPORTING REGIME WILL MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE IN STEP WITH
SFC CYCLONE.
...PORTIONS SRN/ERN FL PENINSULA...
GEN TSTM REGIME DESCRIBED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK MAY CARRY OVER INTO EARLY
DAY-2 PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PENINSULA. DURING MID-DAY INTO
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER S
FL...SFC DIABATIC HEATING RENDERS VERY WEAK CINH IN WARM-SECTOR AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 670S F.
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT FOR MLCAPE IN 700-1200 J/KG RANGE INLAND. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE VEERING SFC WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND RELATED
REDUCTION IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...WITH
RELATED LACK OF MORE ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2010
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