SWODY2
SPC AC 071727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL REACH THE
SRN PLAINS MONDAY AND LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT PHASES WITH NRN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING
SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE...WHILE
A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH TX.
...CNTRL/SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA...
SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS TX IN ADVANCE OF THE
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING
FROM ERN U.S. CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
OVER THE GULF WITH INCOMPLETE MODIFICATION SUPPORTING ONLY UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD THROUGH SERN TX AND SWRN LA.
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL FURTHER LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
EWD ADVANCING FRONT SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN LA. THE STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
DEEP SHEAR WITH HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
SUGGESTS MOST STORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THIS
ALONG WITH WEAK CAPE SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO...BUT THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 02/07/2010
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