SWODY2
SPC AC 170609
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CST WED FEB 17 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WILL BE A
SERIES OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA DIGGING SSEWD THROUGH THE NWRN
AND N-CNTRL STATES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...CNTRL ROCKIES AND
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER S...A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO
AND DEEP S TX.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY MIDLEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA SWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER WRN TX.
...NV/UT...
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.50 INCH.
HOWEVER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE
FORMATION OF ISOLATED TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.
...DEEP S TX...
INCREASING SLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
PARTICULARLY FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 850 MB. INCREASED
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE WEAK
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
..MEAD.. 02/17/2010
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