SWODY2
SPC AC 210656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON MONDAY AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
NEW ENGLAND/ERN CANADA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX /LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/ SHIFTS SWD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.
MEANWHILE...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BE
MAINTAINED FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO/ADJACENT STATES AND
OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST ON DAY 2. A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES WHILE A
COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK EWD ALONG THE NRN GULF
COAST AND S FL.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE OH VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HEIGHT FALLS IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH THIS
SECONDARY LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
...PARTS OF FL PANHANDLE AND N FL INTO SRN GA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE OH VALLEY SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES ON DAY 2...AND SHOULD TRAIL SSWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE START OF DAY 2...PRIMARILY ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE SERN
STATES LIMITING SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT...THE LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH THE
ACTIVITY TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA.
...S FL AND FL KEYS...
00Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE SHOWER/TSTMS WILL AFFECT S FL ON MONDAY
WITH EACH MODEL SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE/ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EWD NEAR OR S OF THE FL KEYS THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...STRONGEST STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE MAINLAND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDING THE
NEED FOR EVEN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS S FL.
..PETERS.. 02/21/2010
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