DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041654
SWODY2
SPC AC 041653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CST THU FEB 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN
FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SERN STATES.
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD...BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERTAKES
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE NC COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA
ALONG A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR MODEST
INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY OVER S
FL. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG OVER THE REGION. PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
PENINSULA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND LEWP STRUCTURES. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..DIAL.. 02/04/2010

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