DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER TX IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH SHOULD COVER
THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH A SHARP UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD-MOVING UPPER
FEATURE OVER TX IS PROGGED TO OCCUR/SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE S CENTRAL U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH MOST
LIGHTNING CONFINED TO THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

...FAR SRN/SERN LA...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF MAY BRUSH THE SRN LA COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SREF FORECASTS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF POTENTIAL LOW CENTERS
RANGING FROM 50 MILES INLAND TO 100 MILES OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...THE
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY CONTOUR FOR MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE ALSO
SKIRTS THE COASTLINE.

LOCATION OF THE LOW CENTER -- AND ASSOCIATED
MOIST/MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -- WILL PROVE TO BE THE
CRITICAL COMPONENT REGARDING ANY ONSHORE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
PERIOD...AS FAVORABLY-VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ATTM...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO
INCLUDE A SURFACE LOW -- AND THUS WARM SECTOR -- REMAINING JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG A
SMALL PORTION OF THE SRN/SERN LA COAST...WHERE THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR AN ONSHORE WARM SECTOR -- AND THUS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL --
EXISTS.

..GOSS.. 02/28/2010

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