SWODY3
SPC AC 200824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2010
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
SSEWD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. FARTHER
S...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM NRN
MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO/ADJACENT STATES AND OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN STREAM.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE OH VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WSWLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WITH THIS LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
...SERN STATES...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE OH VALLEY SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES ON DAY 3...AND SHOULD TRAIL SSWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE START OF DAY 3...PRIMARILY ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE SERN
STATES LIMITING SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SRN STREAM IMPULSES/ATTENDANT DPVA SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..PETERS.. 02/20/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment