SWODY3
SPC AC 210823
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PORTION OF
THE POLAR VORTEX MOVING S TOWARD NRN MN ON DAY 2 WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SSEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
BEFORE CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY BEYOND DAY 3. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN STRONGER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH TRACKING FROM NM THROUGH TX ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EWD TO THE ROCKIES.
...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION /SOME UPDRAFTS
BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/ ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 02/21/2010
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