SWODY3
SPC AC 230829
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WITH THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
PIVOTING ENE TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE DAY 3.
...E TX...
NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN ON DAY 2 /WED/ WILL SHUNT
MOISTURE WELL S...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...AT BEST...ACROSS
THE FAR WRN GULF LATE DAY 3 /THU NIGHT/ AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FOUR CORNERS TROUGH. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SAME TROUGH AND AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL WAA AND DPVA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS/SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
..PETERS.. 02/23/2010
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