SWOD48
SPC AC 170954
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST WED FEB 17 2010
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS SYSTEM
WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF THE CONUS
ON D5-D7 /SUN FEB 21ST - TUE FEB 23RD/.
THE GFS NOW INDICATES A MUCH STRONGER MIDLEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS MORE INTENSE SOLUTION
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ FROM
THE WRN GULF COAST ON D5 EWD ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST D6
/MON FEB 22ND/ INTO D7. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THEIR RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES...NO
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED.
..MEAD.. 02/17/2010
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