SWOD48
SPC AC 210936
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010
VALID 241200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON DAY 4 /WED FEB 24/. THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM DAY 3 /TUE/
WEAKENING/SHEARING EWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF COAST REGION ON DAY 4
WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AT BASE OF ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE DISCREPANCY OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE NERN CLOSED
LOW RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF
A COUPLE OF PACIFIC TROUGHS TRACKING FROM THE WRN STATES TO THE SRN
PLAINS AND SERN STATES THROUGH DAY 8 /SUN FEB 28/.
NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EXTENT OF THE GULF BASIN DAYS 4-5 /WED
FEB 24-THU FEB 25/ WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT GREATER MOISTURE VALUES
WELL S INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM DAY 6 /FRI FEB 26/ AND
BEYOND. HOWEVER...DESPITE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMPLIFICATION
OF PACIFIC TROUGHS...THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.
..PETERS.. 02/21/2010
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